Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

089
FXUS64 KSHV 152343
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
643 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

While a low pressure system is impacting the Great Lakes Region,
an associated cold front has become quasi-stationary just
northwest of the region. We have seen some rain and thunderstorms
develop along this boundary this afternoon, which has stayed
sub severe in intensity so far. The concern in previous packages
has been the strength in the cap, as seen from the KSHV 12z
sounding this morning. RAP analysis has shown some decay in the
cap through the day, but we have yet to know if it will be enough
for future storms to take advantage of the favorable environment
and become severe. Either way, the rain showers will continue to
be possible in our far northern zones through the evening and
into the overnight hours before the cold front mixes out early
Friday morning. The continued cloud cover and elevated surface
winds will help keep the regional lows tonight firmly in the 70s.

Friday will bring similar conditions to the Ark-La-Tx: warm
temperatures and a favorable environment for evening storms, but
some uncertainty on if anything will be able to initiate. Short
and medium-range guidance has been inconsistent on this front,
mainly due to the overall lack of decent low-level forcing.
Despite the uncertainty, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather
north of a line stretching from north of Monroe to south of Tyler
on Friday. This risk is primarily for large hail and damaging
winds from storms that are able to initiate and tap in to the
environmental moisture and instability. There is also a chance of
flash flooding in portions of southern AR with these storms. Rain
may continue to impact the northern half of the area overnight
Friday, but severe potential should drop off with the progression
of upper-level support. /57/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

More upper-level perturbations will move through the Four State
Region and bring continued chances of showers and storms through
late Sunday, when the upper-level ridge sitting over the area
is able to amplify. This could provide a brief reprieve in the
unsettled weather on Monday, but there is still a chance of
isolated rain showers breaking through the weak part of the ridge.

Tuesday will likely bring more widespread severe weather to the
area, as models are already beginning to find points of agreement
in the setup. A closed low is expected to propagate eastward
toward the Central Plains on Tuesday and bring a cold front with
it. That front, in combination with a potential Texas dryline,
would be the focus of severe weather. There is still some
uncertainties on the event, but SPC has already highlighted the
northwestern fourth of the CWA as having a 15% chance of severe
development on Tuesday. The system should continue eastward out of
the region by Wednesday, and reward us with slightly cooler
temperatures for the rest of the week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A quasi-stationary surface boundary remains located across the NW
airspace this evening as a mix of low, mid and high cloud
prevails the 00z TAF period. SHV radar is picking up on light
reflectivity returns within the vicinity of this boundary, but any
further maturing of the isolated SHRA remains to be seen. It is
possible that a few stronger showers, maybe some brief iso TSRA
exists along the boundary, just north of KTXK, late tonight,
early Friday. That being said, this expected to remain north of
the terminal based on the latest hi-res support. Overnight and
through Friday AM, low deck BKN/OVC will advect northward and
linger through much of the afternoon tomorrow, becoming more
SCT/BKN below 5kft later in the period. Mid and high cloud will
again be present. As we approach 16/00z, the western airspace will
be the place to watch as discrete TSRA looks to quickly develop
across ETX and SEOK. Given convective initiation time, TSRA and
VCTS impacts were not included in this package, but will be needed
in the next. Again, stout S/SW surface terminal winds will be in
place, with gust nearing 20kt.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this
evening northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor of extreme
Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, should
any isolated storms develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  92  75  92 /  10  10  30  20
MLU  76  93  75  94 /   0   0  30  20
DEQ  71  88  65  89 /  30  20  20  30
TXK  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  40  30
ELD  73  91  69  92 /  10  10  50  30
TYR  76  90  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
GGG  74  90  72  91 /  10  10  30  20
LFK  75  93  75  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...53